The Fall and Rise of US Christianity
In 1990, when I officially ended a 10-year experiment with atheism and joined a Christian church, it felt a little bit like I was heading onto Noah’s ark just when everyone else was abandoning ship. Over the next 30 years, Christianity in the US lost 1/3 of its membership, going from the religion of 90% of Americans to 60% of Americans. The leavers looked a lot like me — white, male, liberal and younger (under 50) — and most of them became “nones,” a category that includes everyone who calls themselves atheists, agnostics or uninterested. The “nones” went from about 6% of the population in 1990 to 29% in 2022 (other religions during the period have remained consistently under 10%).
Last week, the Pew Research Center issued a big new study suggesting that the decline of Christianity may have leveled off. The report finds that over the past 5 years, the decline of Christianity first slowed, then reversed slightly. Christians now make up 62% of the US population, while “nones” have remained stable at 29%.
What’s behind the comeback?
There appear to be four big factors at work:
COVID: The increased isolation the pandemic brought gave us time, motive and opportunity to re-examine what we care about and believe in. It could be that more people either realized the value of their church community and decided to stay or discovered what the French philosopher Blaise Pascal called a “God-sized hole in the heart” and decided to come back to the church. They are coming back in part because they want…
Answers: It is evangelical Christian churches, not “mainline” churches, that are seeing growth in membership. One reason: evangelical churches offer clear, straightforward answers to difficult ethical and moral issues. How do we think about abortion, sexuality and gender? What is the role of God in government? Who is my neighbor and what are my obligations? There is deep disagreement within Christianity about whether the evangelicals’ positions on these issues are correct, but in a volatile world of increasingly confusing questions, it is reassuring for many people to find a place that offers confident “answers.” This is particularly comforting to a group that has faced the greatest amount of job loss, addiction and mental health issues….
Men: Men in general are finding their way back to the church in slightly higher numbers. Gen Z men in particular are defying a long-standing truism of religious belief. Unlike all other age groups, where women are much more likely to identify as Christian than men, Gen Z men are claiming Christianity at almost the same rate as women. In part, the return of men is because of…
A few more young people, and more young men in particular, are saying yes to Christianity.
Politics: For years, political conservatives have been more likely than liberals to be Christian (and the gap is getting bigger: since 2007, the percentage of political conservatives who identify as Christians has fallen by 7 points; the percentage of political liberals who call themselves Christian has declined by 25 points). More recently, Christianity, particularly evangelical Christianity, has become an integral part of a conservative identity. President Trump and Vice President Vance have warmly embraced conservative Christian leaders. Over the past year, even formerly anti-Christian conservatives have appeared to alter their positions:
Podcaster Joe Rogan, who had formerly joined atheist Richard Dawkins in mocking Christians, said to New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers in an interview last year: “We need Jesus.”
Tech bro and J.D. Vance mentor Peter Thiel, who had formerly argued that technology could solve all problems, including death, told a pastor in an interview that it is clear to him that God “has a plan for your life.”
Even former “atheist hero” Elon Musk said in an interview with Jordan Peterson, “I’m actually a big believer in the principles of Christianity.”
Younger Christians also increasingly prefer that their church reflect their political beliefs. A 2022 survey by Lifeway Research found that 57% of churchgoers under 50 want to be in a congregation with people who share their politics. The line between politics and faith is blurring, particularly for young people. As Dr. David Campbell of Notre Dame University told The New York Times:
The link between politics and faith is getting closer.
“If you’re a young white male these days and you think of yourself as conservative, then being religious is part of that.”
Does any of this mean Christianity is likely to continue its recent uptick as a percentage of the US population? Demographics argue against it. The groups most likely to be Christian-- those born in the 30’s, 40, and 50’s are all 75%-80% Christian-- are (spoiler alert) on our way out. And despite the new resurgence of interest of young men in joining the church, only 46% of everyone born in the 90’s and 00’s are professed Christians.
So the days of a 90% Christian US are over. Even with the resurgence, a decade from now we may see numbers closer to 50%.
But the Pew Survey finds 90% of Americans are still hungry for something spiritual in our lives.
Some 83% of us believe “in God or a universal spirit”; 86% believe we “have a soul or spirit in addition to a physical body”; 79% believe “there is something spiritual beyond the natural world”; 70% believe in “an afterlife (Heaven, hell or both)”; and 92% of us agree with at least one of those statements. The people in those groups represent a potential opportunity for organized religion and make it likely that wherever we settle in, we are likely to remain a nation, more or less, still “under God.”
-Leslie
Notes:
Pew 2025 report: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/decline-of-christianity-in-the-us-has-slowed-may-have-leveled-off/
Pew 2022 report: https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/how-u-s-religious-composition-has-changed-in-recent-decades/
God-sized hole in the heart origin: https://christianity.stackexchange.com/questions/2746/where-does-the-concept-of-a-god-shaped-hole-originate
Conservative intellectuals finding God: https://www.thefp.com/p/how-intellectuals-found-god-ayaan-hirsi-ali-peter-thiel-jordan-peterson
Survey on politics and faith: https://research.lifeway.com/2022/11/01/churchgoers-increasingly-prefer-a-congregation-that-shares-their-politics/
Potential explanations for end of decline for Christianity in US: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/christianity-us-religious-study-pew.html?login=email&auth=login-email
PRRI research on religious change in the US: https://www.prri.org/research/religious-change-in-america/