XVI Questions for SB LIX
Super Bowl betting has exploded over the past few years as more and more states legalize sports gambling.
Get ready to be shocked when you hear how much will be bet on this year’s Super Bowl.
In 2021, 23 million Americans bet $4.3 billion on the game. By last year, those numbers were 68 million Americans (more than half of the expected 120 million viewers) betting $23 billion. Projections are that this year will be even higher.
And the amount people are betting is pretty stunning too. Already someone has bet $110,000 (US per capita annual income is just over $70,000) on this hunch: that the two teams combined point total will be less than 49.5 points. Another person bet $200,000 on the Eagles to win. Look for more stories like that over the next few days.
According to Lending Tree, 63% of Americans who are betting say they will use one of the organized sports books (think Draft Kings and FanDuel), up from 52% last year. The goal of sports books, put simply, is to ensure that you bet (and lose) as much as they can talk you into, and they will be advertising like crazy during the game. It appears to be working. A record 41% of bettors say they will wager more than $100 on the game this year.
How confident are the sports books that you will lose if you bet with them? Count up the number of 30-second spots you see from them, multiply that by the price per ad ($8 million per 30 seconds) and you get some idea.
Besides their take on each bet regardless of how it goes (about 4.5%), they really cash in when they convince people to make extremely unlikely bets:
Will a defensive player score a touchdown on an offensive play? (two players did that in the first 58 years)
Will Drake appear with Kendrick at halftime? (sure, maybe after Duke and Carolina agree on a merger of their basketball teams)
Kendrick would no more ask Drake to appear with him at halftime than Donald would name Kamala Secretary of State. But you can still bet on it.
Then they make even more money when people make combinations of bets (will Travis Kelce score the first touchdown for the Chiefs and Saquon Barkley score first for the Eagles?).
I’m currently in a blood feud with the sports books (to be clear, I am doing all the feuding; they couldn’t care less) for a number of reasons (see this piece, “Only Losers in the Building”), so I want to encourage you to dis the sports books and do your Super Bowl betting this year old school — among friends. Hey, it worked last year.
It’s “The Ultimate Super Bowl Quiz for (Mostly) NonFootball Fans: Part II”).
There are no odds to wrestle with. No need to share credit card information with strangers. No sportsbook to rake off its spread. You and your friends print out the quiz, keep track of your selections on a piece of poster board (analog) or spreadsheet (digital) and put up your money in advance. Someone keeps score. At the end of the quiz, whoever has the highest score gets the money. A bonus: virtually no knowledge of football is required.
You’ll notice all quiz answers will be resolved by the end of halftime. That’s intentional: young people may need to bolt to get to a more exciting party; folks with young kids may need to get back for babysitters; old people may need to take their dentures out. Downside: I have to leave out the question of whether Travis Kelce will propose to Taylor Swift after the game (current line yes +500; no -950).
Super Bowl Quiz 2025
(16 questions (1 for Jalen Hurts jersey # +15 for Patrick Mahomes jersey #); 1 point for each correct answer)
1. Length of national anthem (from beginning of “Oh”… to end of “brave” less than 115 seconds? (Appoint a timer in advance)
2. Will Taylor Swift be shown during the anthem 0, 1 or more than 1 time?
3. Will anyone be shown crying during the national anthem?
4. Coin toss heads or tails?
5. During the first quarter, will anyone refer to Patrick Mahomes’ “Dad-bod”?
6. First play from scrimmage run or pass?
7. First player to catch a pass wearing even or odd number?
8. Which team scores first? Chiefs or Eagles? (name the player for a bonus of 2 points)
9. Will Taylor Swift’s hair be worn up or down? (appoint a hair judge in advance)
10. Which category of ad will be the first one shown following the kickoff of the game: betting, beer, soft drink. car, food or other?
11. Will either team go for it on 4th down during the first half?
12. Who’s ahead at the end of the 1st quarter- Chiefs, Eagles, tied
13. Which of these commercials will be shown first following the kickoff (pick one)? Taco Ball – Doja Cat; Mannings Kick of Destiny; Bud Light Post Malone; Dafoe/O’Hara Pickleball Hustlers; Doritos winner; When Sally Met Hellmans; Young Clydesdale Beer Delivery
14. Will there be an unintentional spill in the main viewing room of your party during the first half? Choose “Yes, primarily food”; “yes, primarily drink” or “no” (you should appoint a judge in advance to adjudicate spill content and intent)
15. Which of these Drake songs will he perform first? Not Like Us, HUMBLE, King Kunta, DNA, Alright (assign someone qualified to make this determination)
16. Which of these artists will be featured during Kendrick’s halftime show? Lil Wayne, Metro Boomin, Future, Baby Keem, none of these (must pick only one - same judge)
Tiebreaker: How many points will be scored in the first half (closest guess wins)?
And that’s it. Feel free to add to or delete based on the vibe of your party. But I do invite you to join me in my pyrrhic effort to “stick it to the books.” Together we can make Super Bowl betting great again!
-Leslie
Notes:
Projections for 2025 Super Bowl betting: https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/43279363/super-bowl-lix-2025-betting-beginners-odds-lines-props
Lending Tree analysis of Super Bowl betting: https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/super-bowl-spending/
Sports book profit margins: https://www.sportsinsights.com/betting-tools/sportsbook-profit-margins/#:~:text=Sportsbook%20Payouts%20and%20the%20“Centered%20Game”&text=If%20the%20bets%20are%20priced,the%20cushion%20of%20the%20vig.
Biggest bets so far: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/super-bowl-bets-the-biggest-super-bowl-lix-wagers